This morning’s Employment Situation Summary for August showed that U.S. employers had added 130,000 workers to payrolls during the month, about what was expected. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. Observers are making headlines about the slowdown in hiring but it’s worth pointing out that a) the economists’ estimates of job growth are highly speculative and missing by 13% on a highly speculative estimate is hardly missing; and b) job growth that is still keeping pace with population growth at this stage of the economic cycle is solid growth.
Backing that last point up is the fact that the workforce is continuing to expand, even as unemployment remains unchanged. The number of workers grew by 30,000 in August, a sign that unemployed persons are continuing to come off the sidelines and find work. Also encouraging was the continued growth in wages, which topped $28/hour again for the second straight month.
The August report isn’t all sunshine, of course. The hiring paled in comparison to one year earlier, when 282,000 jobs were added. The lower number was also consistent with the 2019 trend, which is seeing an average of 158,000 jobs added monthly, compared to 170,000 in 2018 (and that after a 500,000 job downward revision to 2018). Moreover, the trend for the past six months is even slower, falling below 135,000 new jobs.
After the last two recessions, which were precipitated by catastrophic events, the U.S. economy seems to be on a course to slow down, rather than hit a wall. The current economic expansion started in March 2009. That’s a long time without a downturn. Trade wars are hurting U.S. corporations and farmers. Most of the rest of the G-20 nations are seeing flat economies, or even recessions, at the moment. It’s more likely than not that some of the jobs reports during the next six months will be even weaker than August’s. But maintaining the highest level of economic output in U.S. history isn’t the worst place to get stuck.
A look at the Builders Exchange his past week or so reveals that the bidding market is slowing but local project news reflects the healthy local economy. Franjo Construction started work on a $3-4 million expansion/renovation project at Innovative Carbide in North Huntingdon Township. Franjo also pulled a permit for a $3 million dispensary buildout for Solevo Wellness at the Streets at the Meadowlands in North Strabane. Massaro Corp. was awarded the $1.2 million WVUM Ruby Hospital radiology reading renovation. Waller Corp. started work on $5 million The Eagle Food & Beer Hall for Thunderdome Restaurant Group. Pitt is conducting final CM interviews with Massaro, Turner and Whiting-Turner for its $200 million central plant/Human Performance Center project. And the $200 million-plus, 600,000 square foot office tower proposed by JMC Holdings has gone back out for CM proposals. Last time, JMC worked with Turner, PJ Dick, Mascaro, and others, hiring Turner for preconstruction services.